000113485 001__ 113485 000113485 005__ 20210803102308.0 000113485 0247_ $$2doi$$a10.22004/ag.econ.113485 000113485 037__ $$a1812-2016-142971 000113485 037__ $$a1812-2016-146584 000113485 041__ $$aeng 000113485 245__ $$aStudy on Population Forecast Model in Planning of Land Use 000113485 260__ $$c2011-04 000113485 269__ $$a2011-04 000113485 300__ $$a4 000113485 336__ $$aJournal Article 000113485 520__ $$aOn the basis of describing characteristics and condition of application of natural growth model of population, weighted average growth model, regression forecast model and GM(1,1)forecast model, taking Gushi County in Henan Province as an example, according to the statistics of population in Gushi County Statistical Yearbook from 1991 to 2007, we establish four models to conduct fitting on population change respectively, and meanwhile, we predict population size from 2008 to 2009 and conduct preciseness test on the population size. The test results show that the preciseness of forecast results of natural growth model is not high, and the preciseness of forecast results of weighted average growth model is not scientific when the total size of population is unstable. The results of GM(1,1)forecast model and regression forecast model largely conform to the actual data, so we can take the mean of the two as the final forecast result. 000113485 650__ $$aAgribusiness 000113485 6531_ $$aPlanning of land use 000113485 6531_ $$aGM ( 1-1)gray forest model 000113485 6531_ $$aPopulation forecast model 000113485 6531_ $$aRegression forecast model 000113485 6531_ $$aChina 000113485 700__ $$aZhang, Yan-fen 000113485 700__ $$aLi, Ying-chao 000113485 700__ $$aChen, Wei-qiang 000113485 773__ $$q63$$o69$$tAsian Agricultural Research$$j03$$k04$$d2011 000113485 8564_ $$94285a8cc-0803-416a-b874-2a445d899b0a$$s161414$$uhttps://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/113485/files/4-15.pdf 000113485 887__ $$ahttp://purl.umn.edu/113485 000113485 909CO $$ooai:ageconsearch.umn.edu:113485$$pGLOBAL_SET 000113485 912__ $$nSubmitted by Jianting LIU (jiantinghong@126.com) on 2011-08-21T02:02:28Z No. of bitstreams: 1 4-15.pdf: 161414 bytes, checksum: c5fa5f1312519a560c81b3a8135752d1 (MD5) 000113485 912__ $$nMade available in DSpace on 2011-08-21T02:02:29Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 4-15.pdf: 161414 bytes, checksum: c5fa5f1312519a560c81b3a8135752d1 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2011-04 000113485 913__ $$aLicense granted by Jianting LIU (jiantinghong@126.com) on 2011-08-21T01:59:50Z (GMT): <center> <h2> Deposit Agreement </h2> </center> I represent that I am the creator of the digital material identified herein (&ldquo;Work&rdquo;). I represent that the work is original and that I either own all rights of copyright or have the right to deposit the copy in a digital archive such as AgEcon Search. I represent that in regard to any non-original material included in the Work I have secured written permission of the copyright owner (s) for this use or believe this use is allowed by law. I further represent that I have included all appropriate credits and attributions. I hereby grant the Regents of the University of Minnesota (&ldquo;University&rdquo;), through AgEcon Search, a non-exclusive right to access, reproduce, and distribute the Work, in whole or in part, for the purposes of security, preservation, and perpetual access. I grant the University a limited, non-exclusive right to make derivative works for the purpose of migrating the Work to other media or formats in order to preserve access to the Work. I do not transfer or intend to transfer any right of copyright or other intellectual property to the University. If the Deposit Agreement is executed by the Author�s Representative, the Representative shall separately execute the following representation: I represent that I am authorized by the Author to execute this Deposit Agreement on behalf of the Author. 000113485 980__ $$a1812 000113485 982__ $$gAsian Agricultural Research> Volume 03, Issue 04, April 2011