000113485 001__ 113485
000113485 005__ 20210803102308.0
000113485 0247_ $$2doi$$a10.22004/ag.econ.113485
000113485 037__ $$a1812-2016-142971
000113485 037__ $$a1812-2016-146584
000113485 041__ $$aeng
000113485 245__ $$aStudy on Population Forecast Model in Planning of Land Use
000113485 260__ $$c2011-04
000113485 269__ $$a2011-04
000113485 300__ $$a4
000113485 336__ $$aJournal Article
000113485 520__ $$aOn the basis of describing characteristics and condition of application of natural growth model of population, weighted average growth model, regression forecast model and GM(1,1)forecast model, taking Gushi County in Henan Province as an example, according to the statistics of population in Gushi County Statistical Yearbook from 1991 to 2007, we establish four models to conduct fitting on population change respectively, and meanwhile, we predict population size from 2008 to 2009 and conduct preciseness test on the population size. The test results show that the preciseness of forecast results of natural growth model is not high, and the preciseness of forecast results of weighted average growth model is not scientific when the total size of population is unstable. The results of GM(1,1)forecast model and regression forecast model largely conform to the actual data, so we can take the mean of the two as the final forecast result.
000113485 650__ $$aAgribusiness
000113485 6531_ $$aPlanning of land use
000113485 6531_ $$aGM ( 1-1)gray forest model
000113485 6531_ $$aPopulation forecast model
000113485 6531_ $$aRegression forecast model
000113485 6531_ $$aChina
000113485 700__ $$aZhang, Yan-fen
000113485 700__ $$aLi, Ying-chao
000113485 700__ $$aChen, Wei-qiang
000113485 773__ $$q63$$o69$$tAsian Agricultural Research$$j03$$k04$$d2011
000113485 8564_ $$94285a8cc-0803-416a-b874-2a445d899b0a$$s161414$$uhttps://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/113485/files/4-15.pdf
000113485 887__ $$ahttp://purl.umn.edu/113485
000113485 909CO $$ooai:ageconsearch.umn.edu:113485$$pGLOBAL_SET
000113485 912__ $$nSubmitted by Jianting  LIU (jiantinghong@126.com) on 2011-08-21T02:02:28Z
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  Previous issue date: 2011-04
000113485 913__ $$aLicense granted by Jianting  LIU (jiantinghong@126.com) on 2011-08-21T01:59:50Z (GMT):

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000113485 980__ $$a1812
000113485 982__ $$gAsian Agricultural Research> Volume 03, Issue 04, April 2011