@article{Zhang:113485,
      recid = {113485},
      author = {Zhang, Yan-fen and Li, Ying-chao and Chen, Wei-qiang},
      title = {Study on Population Forecast Model in Planning of Land  Use},
      journal = {Asian Agricultural Research},
      address = {2011-04},
      number = {1812-2016-142971},
      pages = {4},
      year = {2011},
      abstract = {On the basis of describing characteristics and condition  of application of natural growth model of population,  weighted average growth model, regression forecast model  and GM（1,1）forecast model, taking Gushi County in Henan  Province as an example, according to the statistics of  population in Gushi County Statistical Yearbook from 1991  to 2007, we establish four models to conduct fitting on  population change respectively, and meanwhile, we predict  population size from 2008 to 2009 and conduct preciseness  test on the population size. The test results show that the  preciseness of forecast results of natural growth model is  not high, and the preciseness of forecast results of  weighted average growth model is not scientific when the  total size of population is unstable. The results of  GM（1,1）forecast model and regression forecast model largely  conform to the actual data, so we can take the mean of the  two as the final forecast result.},
      url = {http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/113485},
      doi = {https://doi.org/10.22004/ag.econ.113485},
}