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Abstract

O objetivo geral deste trabalho foi determinar os riscos inerentes à utilização de recursos do PRONAF, com a proposta da associação de um Programa de Garantia de Renda, na oferta, nos preços e na renda auferida pelos produtores de arroz e feijão entre os anos 1998 a 2005. A metodologia utilizada foi a de Newbery & Stiglitz, que considera o caráter de aversão ao risco e apresenta as vantagens de ser adaptada à análise que envolve contratações de operações financeiras de crédito e fornece o prêmio de risco. Os resultados indicam que os agricultores familiares obteriam ganhos de renda, em média, 40,58% e 146,29%, aumento médio nos preços recebidos de 24,66% e 71,78%e aumento médio na produção de 9,79% e 27,28%, enquanto os consumidores seriam beneficiados pela redução média nos preços de 36,26% e 80,22%, com relação aos produtos arroz e feijão, respectivamente. Quanto aos custos da PGR,verificou-se que, no último período analisado (2005), o custo total era de R$ 4.608 milhões, enquanto o custo social era de R$ 517,349 milhões, representando, em termos percentuais, 11,2% do custo total da política de garantia de renda.-------------------------------------------In this study we evaluate potential impacts of an income guaranty program that could be established as alternative use for funds from Brazil’s National Family Agriculture Strengthening Program (PRONAF). Using Newbery and Stiglitz methodology, we analyze the effect of PGR upon the incomes of rice and bean producers between of 1998 to 2005 and on the supplies and prices of these commodities. This methodology is well adapted to our study, as we include an analysis of risk-aversion and credit financed capital investment. Our results show that family farmers producing rice and beans would obtain income gains on average of 40% and 146%, for their respective crops. The income gains arise from an increase in the average prices received of 24% and 71%, and an increase in the average production of 9% and 27%. The results also show that consumers would be benefited by a resultant reduction in these commodities average prices: 36% less for rice and 80% less for beans. It is found that over the last analyzed year, 2005, the total cost of PGR would have been R$ 4,608 million while the social cost would have been R$ 517.349 million, or 11.2% of the total Income Guaranty Program’s total cost.

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