@article{Elobeid:103798,
      recid = {103798},
      author = {Elobeid, Amani E. and Carriquiry, Miguel A. and Fabiosa,  Jacinto F.},
      title = {Global Biofuel Expansion and the Demand for Brazilian  Land: Intensification versus Expansion},
      address = {2011},
      number = {321-2016-10777},
      series = {Selected Paper},
      pages = {25},
      year = {2011},
      abstract = {We use a spatially disaggregated model of Brazilian  agriculture to assess the implications of global biofuel  expansion on Brazilian land usage at the regional level.  This Brazilian model is part of the FAPRI agricultural  modeling system, a multimarket, multi-commodity  international agricultural model, used to quantify the  emergence of biofuels and to analyze the impact of biofuel  expansion and policies on both Brazilian and world  agriculture. We evaluate two scenarios in which we  introduce a 25% exogenous increase in the global demand for  ethanol and one scenario in which we increase global  ethanol demand by 50%. We then analyze the impact of these  increases in terms of land-use change and commodity price  changes particularly in Brazil. In the first scenario, we  assume that the enforcement of the land-use reserve in  Brazil remains at historically observed levels, and that  abundant additional land can be readily incorporated into  production.  The second scenario involves implementing the  same exogenous biofuel demand shock but with a different  responsiveness in area expansion to price signals in  Brazil, reflecting varying plausible assumptions on land  availability for agricultural expansion. The third  scenario, which is similar to the first scenario but with a  larger increase in global ethanol demand, is run to check  whether increasing volume of ethanol requires the  incorporation of additional quantities of land per unit of  ethanol. We find that, within Brazil, the expansion occurs  mostly in the Southeast region. Additionally, total  sugarcane area expansion in Brazil is higher than the  increase in overall area used for agriculture. This implies  that part of the sugarcane expansion displaced other crops  and pasture that is not replaced, which suggests some  intensification in land use. The lower land expansion  elasticities in the second scenario result in a smaller  expansion of area used for agricultural activities. A  higher proportion of the expansion in sugarcane area occurs  at the expense of pasture area, which implied land  intensification of beef production. This explains the small  change in commodity prices observed between the first and  second scenarios. These results suggest that reducing the  overall responsiveness of Brazilian agriculture may limit  the land-use changes brought about by biofuel expansion,  which would in turn reduce its environmental impacts in  terms of land expansion. Additionally, the impacts on food  prices are limited because of the ability of local  producers to increase the intensity of land use in both  crop (by double cropping and raising yields) and livestock  production (by increasing the number of heads of cattle per  hectare of pasture or stocking rate) releases area that can  be used for crops. In scenario three, we find that larger  ethanol volumes did not require more land per unit of  ethanol. Doubling the demand for ethanol does not change  the results, which indicates that the limit for  intensification is beyond the 50% expansion assumed in  Scenario 3. In this range, the same amount of land is  incorporated into production per additional unit of  ethanol.},
      url = {http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/103798},
      doi = {https://doi.org/10.22004/ag.econ.103798},
}