000097765 001__ 97765
000097765 005__ 20180122214356.0
000097765 037__ $$a607-2016-40367
000097765 041__ $$aen
000097765 245__ $$aTiger or turtle?: exploring alternative futures for Egypt to 2020
000097765 260__ $$c1996-08
000097765 269__ $$a1996-08
000097765 300__ $$a40
000097765 336__ $$aWorking or Discussion Paper
000097765 390__ $$aIncludes bibliographical references (p. 20-22). In association with the Economic Research Forum for the Arab Countries, Iran and Turkey. Published, in 1998, in Raed Safadi, ed. Opening doors to the world: a new trade agenda for the Middle East. pp. 167-197. (Chapter 5).
000097765 490__ $$aTMD Discussion Paper
000097765 490__ $$a11
000097765 500__ $$aIncludes bibliographical references (p. 20-22). In association with the Economic Research Forum for the Arab Countries, Iran and Turkey. Published, in 1998, in Raed Safadi, ed. Opening doors to the world: a new trade agenda for the Middle East. pp. 167-197. (Chapter 5).
000097765 520__ $$aA dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model is used to explore alternative scenarios for 1990-2020 in areas critical for Egypt's economy -- productivity growth, investment, foreign trade, and water. The model is formulated as a mixed-complementarity problem, has a detailed treatment of agriculture, assumes competitive markets and determines efficient water allocation. A "Turtle" scenario extrapolates Egypt's recent poor productivity and low investment, while a "Tiger" scenario assumes East Asian performance. For the Turtle scenario, incomes are stagnant and a crisis emerges in the labor market. With rapid growth in export demand, investment and productivity, the "Tiger" scenario generates almost tripled per-capita incomes and full employment. Sensitivity analysis for the Tiger scenario suggests that growth in export demand is important, while tariff removal with no other policy changes has little effect. Increasing water scarcity hurts agriculture and labor absorption, but has little effect on overall growth.
000097765 542__ $$fLicense granted by Janelle Andersen (ande9439@umn.edu) on 2010-12-10T21:13:04Z (GMT):

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000097765 650__ $$aInternational Development
000097765 6531_ $$aEquilibrium (Economics) -- Egypt
000097765 6531_ $$aAgriculture -- Economic aspects -- Egypt
000097765 6531_ $$aWater-supply
000097765 6531_ $$aAgricultural -- Egypt
000097765 6531_ $$aComputable general equilibrium (CGE)
000097765 700__ $$aLofgren, Hans
000097765 700__ $$aRobinson, Sherman
000097765 700__ $$aNygaard, David F.
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000097765 887__ $$ahttp://purl.umn.edu/97765
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  Previous issue date: 1996-08
000097765 982__ $$gInternational Food Policy Research Institute>TMD Discussion Papers
000097765 980__ $$a607