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Abstract
This study investigates the micro-determinants of land use change using
community, household and plot histories, an ethnographic method that constructs panel
data from systematic oral recalls. A 20-year historical timeline (1975-1995) is
constructed for the village of La Lima in central Honduras, based on a random sample of
97 plots. Changes in land use are examined using transition analysis and multinomial
logit analysis. Transition analysis shows that land use transitions were relatively
infrequent in areas under extensive cultivation, but more so in areas of intensive
cultivation; and that most changes favored intensification. Econometric analysis suggests
that land use intensification was influenced by plot level variables (especially altitude,
slope, distance to a road and tenure), farm level variables (human capital, farm size, and
ownership of productive implements), and by community variables (especially presence
of technical assistance programs).
To the extent these results are found to be more broadly representative, they
suggest that there may be good potential to promote income-enhancing horticultural
development through investments in technical assistance and education in similar
communities elsewhere in Honduras. The study concludes that the plot history approach
is a potentially valuable tool for investigating the underlying causes of change in land use
at the micro-level. The method is particularly well adapted to situations where the
availability of data is poor. It is also suggested that the approach would have additional
benefits when replicated over a large number of sites as this would allow integration of
higher order determinants (e.g. national policies and market incentives) while expanding
the applicability and representativity of findings.