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Abstract
At the EU Council in December 2004, European heads of governments
decided to start EU accession negotiations with Turkey in
October 2005. Various recent analyses assess the cost of applying
the Common Agricultural Policy of the EU (CAP) to Turkey; most of
them without taking into account the specific structure of the agricultural
sector in Turkey, which would determine the receipts from
EU funds. This paper assesses potential budgetary effects resulting
from the application of the CAP to Turkey. The analysis is based on
macroeconomic projections, equilibrium modelling of the Turkish
agricultural sector, and projections of the future development of the
CAP. It is found that total EU budgetary outlays for the application
of the CAP to Turkey could total about € 3.5 billion in 2015 and rise
to € 5.4 billion in 2025 due to full phasing in of direct payments and
rural development policies. The resulting net transfer under the CAP
to Turkey would be about € 1.7 billion in 2015 and could increase to
€ 2.9 billion in 2025. Such sums take a backseat to projected transfers
under the structural policy of the EU and the overall political
project of including Turkey in the EU.