000009321 001__ 9321
000009321 005__ 20180122193507.0
000009321 037__ $$a825-2016-55000
000009321 041__ $$aen
000009321 084__ $$aQ540
000009321 245__ $$aHow Overconfident are Current Projections of Anthropogenic Carbon Dioxide Emissions?
000009321 260__ $$c2007
000009321 269__ $$a2007
000009321 300__ $$a38
000009321 336__ $$aWorking or Discussion Paper
000009321 446__ $$aEnglish
000009321 490__ $$aCCMP Nota di Lavoro 39.2007
000009321 520__ $$aAnalyzing the risks of anthropogenic climate change requires sound probabilistic projections of CO2 emissions. Previous projections have broken important new ground, but many rely on out-of-range projections, are limited to the 21st century, or provide only implicit probabilistic information. Here we take a step towards resolving these problems by assimilating globally aggregated observations of population size, economic output, and CO2 emissions over the last three centuries into a simple economic model. We use this model to derive probabilistic projections of business-as-usual CO2 emissions to the year 2150. We demonstrate how the common practice to limit the calibration timescale to decades can result in biased and overconfident projections. The range of several CO2 emission scenarios (e.g., from the Special Report on Emission Scenarios) misses potentially important tails of our projected probability density function. Studies that have interpreted the range of CO2 emission scenarios as an approximation for the full forcing uncertainty may well be biased towards overconfident climate change projections.
000009321 650__ $$aEnvironmental Economics and Policy
000009321 6531_ $$aCarbon Dioxide
000009321 6531_ $$aEmissions
000009321 6531_ $$aScenarios
000009321 6531_ $$aData Assimilation
000009321 6531_ $$aMarkov Chain Monte Carlo
000009321 700__ $$aKeller, Klaus
000009321 700__ $$aMiltich, Louise I.
000009321 700__ $$aRobinson, Alexander
000009321 700__ $$aTol, Richard S.J.
000009321 8564_ $$s527614$$uhttp://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/9321/files/wp070039.pdf
000009321 887__ $$ahttp://purl.umn.edu/9321
000009321 909CO $$ooai:ageconsearch.umn.edu:9321$$pGLOBAL_SET
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  Previous issue date: 2007
000009321 982__ $$gFondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM)>Climate Change Modelling and Policy Working Papers
000009321 980__ $$a825