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Abstract

The need for a forecasting system of biological quality arises as a result of the price-quality payment schemes in grower and processor contracts which operate in many agricultural cropping industries. The seasonal nature of the series of vertical quality height gives rise to questions as to the repetitive pattern of the shape and trend translation of the series. These hypotheses can be tested using conventional statistical methods. For non-stationary series, however, a Box-Jenkins type dynamic seasonal model is proposed. These forecasting procedures are applied to a series of sugar cane quality.

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