000090802 001__ 90802
000090802 005__ 20180122212941.0
000090802 0247_ $$2Other$$aISBN 978-3-938584-50-7
000090802 037__ $$a924-2016-72968
000090802 041__ $$aen
000090802 084__ $$aQ11
000090802 084__ $$aQ13
000090802 245__ $$aHow Predictable are Prices of Agricultural Commodities? – The Possibilities and  Constraints of Forecasting Wheat Prices
000090802 260__ $$c2010-06-16
000090802 269__ $$a2010-06-16
000090802 270__ $$mcholst@gwdg.de$$pHolst,   Carsten
000090802 300__ $$a18
000090802 336__ $$aConference Paper/ Presentation
000090802 520__ $$aWheat price forecasts are very important for traders, farmers and politicians as well. However, only quite accurate price predictions can guide these groups towards making the best decisions. Therefore the well-known wheat price projections of both the OECD and the FAPRI from 1996 on are tested for their predictive accuracy using Theil’s inequality coefficient. Despite the fact that both models could not foresee the price peak which occurred in February 2008, their predictions offer more accurate values than a naive prediction of no price change. Nevertheless, precise price forecasts cannot be expected by the models of the OECD and the FAPRI since some short-run effects such as inappropriate weather are not predictable. Thus, our own econometric model is developed taking the previous price development, the stocks-to-use-ratio and the crude oil price into account. In comparison to the projections of both institutions the model, with rather simple assumptions, was able to generate forecasts more accurately. In a simulation study which takes different crude oil price levels and stochastic effects of the world wheat consumption and the average yields per hectare into account, the possible wheat price range is shown as large. Therefore, price predictions can only inform about general long-run trends.
000090802 542__ $$fLicense granted by Britta Paasche (paasche@iamo.de) on 2010-06-07T12:50:26Z (GMT):

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000090802 650__ $$aAgricultural and Food Policy
000090802 650__ $$aInstitutional and Behavioral Economics
000090802 650__ $$aPolitical Economy
000090802 6531_ $$awheat price forecasts
000090802 6531_ $$apredictive accuracy
000090802 6531_ $$aTheil’s inequality coefficient
000090802 700__ $$aHolst, Carsten
000090802 8564_ $$s204995$$uhttp://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/90802/files/Holst_IAMO_Forum%202010.pdf
000090802 887__ $$ahttp://purl.umn.edu/90802
000090802 909CO $$ooai:ageconsearch.umn.edu:90802$$pGLOBAL_SET
000090802 912__ $$nSubmitted by Britta Paasche (paasche@iamo.de) on 2010-06-07T12:55:13Z
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  Previous issue date: 2010-06-16
000090802 982__ $$gInstitute of Agricultural Development in Central and Eastern Europe (IAMO)>2010 IAMO Forum, June 16-18, 2010, Halle (Saale), Germany
000090802 980__ $$a924