Predicting the Corn Basis in the Texas Triangle Area

Shifting patterns of corn use as a result of the ethanol boom may be causing basis levels to change across the United States, creating the need for methods to predict basis levels in dynamic conditions. This study develops a new and straightforward economic model of basis forecasting that outperforms the simple three-year average method suggested in much of the literature. We use monthly data of the corn basis in the Texas Triangle Area from February 1997 to July 2008. The results show the new model based on economic fundamentals performs better than basis estimates using a three-year moving average.


Issue Date:
2009
Publication Type:
Journal Article
DOI and Other Identifiers:
0738-8950 (Other)
PURL Identifier:
http://purl.umn.edu/90657
Published in:
Journal of Agribusiness, Volume 27, Number 1-2
Page range:
49-63
Total Pages:
15




 Record created 2017-04-01, last modified 2017-10-19

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