000007844 001__ 7844
000007844 005__ 20180122192955.0
000007844 037__ $$a689-2016-47250
000007844 041__ $$aen
000007844 245__ $$aShort- and mid-term prospects of the main agricultural sectors in Hungary: a model based analysis with a methodological overview
000007844 260__ $$c2007
000007844 269__ $$a2007
000007844 300__ $$a13
000007844 336__ $$aConference Paper/ Presentation
000007844 446__ $$aEnglish
000007844 490__ $$aEuropean Association of Agricultural Economists 104th Seminar - 2007
000007844 520__ $$aIn our paper, we briefly discuss the outlook for the main agricultural sectors in Hungary until 2013, and present some of the latest results of our modelling work at the Research Institute for Agricultural Economics (AKI). In addition, we provide a short methodological overview of
the applied modelling tools. To strengthen the quantitative analysis capacity during the pre-accession period, AKI developed a partial equilibrium model (Hungarian Simulation Model or HUSIM) by the end
of the 1990's. Since then, AKI has been regularly carrying out agricultural policy analyses by applying this economic model. After gathering experiences with HUSIM, strong demand was raised on a modelling tool that enables us to investigate the structural changes in agriculture in
more depth by focusing on the main sectors and their interrelationships. According to this concept, a partial equilibrium model, FARM-T was developed, which uses farm groups as agents to investigate the changes in agricultural output and the underlying structural progress.
The first part of our paper describes the concept and structure of this model in more detail.
In the second part, we focus our investigation on the changes in production structure and competitiveness on domestic and foreign markets. Only a few years after EU accession, Hungarian farmers again face considerable challenges: due to the full or partial decoupling of
Complementary National Direct Payments already in 2007, the expected introduction of the Single Payment Scheme (SPS) in 2009, the probable abolishing of the EU cereals intervention regime, and the compulsory blending of bio-fuels, major changes in the agricultural sectors
are foreseen. But structural problems and the lack of capital for modernization may slow down the adjustment process.
000007844 650__ $$aFarm Management
000007844 6531_ $$amid-term prospects
000007844 6531_ $$adecoupling
000007844 6531_ $$afarm group model
000007844 6531_ $$aFARM-T
000007844 6531_ $$aHungary.
000007844 700__ $$aHimics, Mihaly
000007844 700__ $$aPotori, Norbert
000007844 8564_ $$s180301$$uhttp://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/7844/files/sp07hi01.pdf
000007844 887__ $$ahttp://purl.umn.edu/7844
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  Previous issue date: 2007
000007844 982__ $$gEuropean Association of Agricultural Economists>104th Seminar, September 5-8, 2007, Budapest, Hungary
000007844 980__ $$a689