Rationality of U.S. Department of Agriculture Livestock Price Forecasts: A Unified Approach

This research presents a systematic and unified approach to evaluating forecast rationality that considers the potential of nonstationarity in forecasts and realized values. The approach is applied to one-quarter ahead U.S. Department of Agriculture livestock price forecasts from 1982 through 2004. Results show that forecasts and realized prices are integrated of the same order, and those that are nonstationary are cointegrated. However, the stationary price forecasts for hogs, turkeys, eggs, and milk are biased and improperly scaled, and forecast errors tend to be repeated. Similarly, nonstationary forecasts for cattle and broilers are also biased and irrational in the long run, but short-run dynamics are rational.


Issue Date:
2007-04
Publication Type:
Journal Article
PURL Identifier:
http://purl.umn.edu/6658
Published in:
Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Volume 39, Number 1
Page range:
75-85
Total Pages:
11
JEL Codes:
C53; Q13




 Record created 2017-04-01, last modified 2017-11-16

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