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Abstract
This study aims to analyze the agribusiness contribution to
Brazil’s trade balance. A new classification of the agribusiness trade
balance was proposed and used to analyze the aspects of the exported
products –agricultural products, products of animal origin, industrialized
foods and imported inputs – represented by fertilizers. Imports and
exports vector autoregression models were used to explain the behavior
of these variables. An increase of 1% in the attractiveness – product of
the exchange rate by the international prices – boosts immediately the
exports of non processed agricultural products by 1.71%, stabilizing
at 2% after some trimesters. The attractiveness explains 60 to 74% of
the forecast error variances of these exportats. It is noted that an exchange
rate devaluation stimulates more the exports of products than it
does the fertilizer imports. Besides, an increase of 1% of the GDP has
an expressive impact (converging into -1.7%) on agricultural products
exports.