Files
Abstract
This paper accomplishes two objectives. First, it provides simulation results from
a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model that have helped focus the debate about
the potential effects of agricultural trade liberalization on developing countries. The
aggregate numbers show modest net positive effects over a medium-term period (five
years out). First, when developed countries fully remove their subsidies and trade
barriers, welfare and GDP of the developing countries rise, as do value added in
agricultural production and agro-industries, and agricultural exports. Focal point
estimates that we provide are increases in welfare and GDP of $10 billion and $15
billion, respectively, while agricultural value added increases $23 billion and agricultural
exports by $37 billion. Second, when developing countries also eliminate their subsidies
and trade barriers, there is an additional net gain in aggregated developing country
welfare and GDP—which now increase by nearly $20 billion and $38 billion. Thus,
developing countries gain from developed country liberalization, but there are also gains
from reform of their own policies. Our results suggest a fairly even balance between
these sources of gains.
The second and equally important contribution of the paper is to describe the
heterogeneity among developing countries in terms of their agricultural resources, and to
disaggregate the simulated results among 40 developing countries or regions. The basic
model includes the innovation of assuming there is unemployed labor in developing
countries, so growth in agricultural production has a modest “multiplier” effect. The basic
model also allows for a slight positive effect of increased trade on productivity—the focal results cited above include this impact. Effects are distinguished between elimination of
subsidies and trade barriers by the US, the EU, Japan and Korea, and all developed
countries simultaneously. Effects on different developing countries and regions differ due
to differences in the subsidy and trade barrier instruments utilized by the developed
countries, the commodities affected, and the trade patterns and volumes evident in the
initial baseline data.
Disaggregation of the impacts among developing countries also demonstrates that
while most gain and become more food secure, there are some developing countries that
are disadvantaged by agricultural trade liberalization by developed countries. Results are
presented with and without the change in productivity. Not surprisingly, rising
productivity offsets the negative effects measured with constant productivity in some
cases. Reform of developing country’s own agricultural trade policies also lead to net
welfare gains, although not always to increased value added in agriculture which is a
measure we report because it is closely tied to rural well being.