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Abstract
The objective of this study is twofold: first, to determine if, in the long run, health
concerns affect the retail demand for beef in the United States via changes in consumer
dietary preferences, and second, to establish if media coverage of popular
diets (media frenzy) causes the change in retail demand for beef or if it simply
reports the facts about the changes in consumer dietary preferences. Data used in
the analysis are the quarterly retail demand index for beef and the number of
newspaper articles and magazine features on low-fat/low-cholesterol and low-carb
diets published in the United States between 1990:I and 2004:IV. Johansen’s
(1991, 1995) cointegration method and vector error correction (VEC) model-based
Granger causality test were used in the long-run and short-run analysis, respectively.
The results indicate health concerns are an important demand shifter for
beef in the long run. In the short run, the media serve as a trigger that will influence
people to become followers of a certain diet.