Dynamic and Stochastic Structures of U.S. Cotton Exports and Mill Demand

This study employs a structural time-series method to model and estimate U.S. cotton exports and mill use. The results show that the stochastic process governing cotton export fluctuations is transitory, while the process pertaining to mill use has transitory, seasonal, and secular origins. The estimated structural relationships after accounting for the unobserved components indicate U.S. cotton exports respond directly to higher international price relative to domestic price of cotton, while mill use responds directly to U.S. textile output price and cotton-to-polyester price ratio. Exchange rate volatility and the U.S. Export Enhancement Program have no significant effect on cotton exports.


Issue Date:
2006
Publication Type:
Journal Article
DOI and Other Identifiers:
0738-8950 (Other)
PURL Identifier:
http://purl.umn.edu/57698
Published in:
Journal of Agribusiness, Volume 24, Number 1
Page range:
41-60
Total Pages:
20




 Record created 2017-04-01, last modified 2017-08-25

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