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Abstract
The primary goal of emergency food aid after an economic shock is often to
bolster short-term food and nutrition security. However, these transfers also act as
insurance against other shock effects, such as destruction of assets and changes in
economic activity, which can have lasting deleterious consequences. Although existing
research provides some evidence of small positive impacts of timely food aid
disbursements after a shock on current food consumption and aggregate consumption,
little is known about whether these transfers play a safety net role by reducing
vulnerability and protecting assets into the future.
We investigate this issue by exploring the presence of persistent impacts of two
major food aid programs following the 2002 drought in Ethiopia: a food-for-work
program known as the Employment Generation Schemes (EGS) and a program of free
food distribution (FFD). Using rural longitudinal household survey data collected in
1999 and 2004, we estimate the impact of these programs on consumption growth, food
security, and growth in asset holdings 18 months after the peak of the drought, when food
aid transfers had substantially or entirely ceased in most program villages.
We measure persistent food aid impacts using a quasi-experimental methodology.
The average treatment effect of each program is estimated using a difference-indifferences
matching technique based on propensity score matching. Comparison
households for the matching analysis are nonbeneficiaries drawn from the same villages.
We undertake several robustness checks of estimated impacts to confirm that observed
effects represent lagged or persistent program impacts, rather than contemporaneous
program effects.
The results show a significant effect of EGS participation on growth in
consumption and food consumption (in per adult equivalent terms) from 1999-2004, a
period ending one-and-a-half years after the drought and at least six months after nearly
all food aid disbursements ceased. EGS beneficiaries also experienced a significant
reduction in perceived famine risk relative to five years ago, while famine risks increased over this period for the group of matched nonbeneficiaries. Contrary to these positive
effects, EGS beneficiaries experienced significantly slower growth of livestock holdings
from 1999 to 2004. This is consistent with a program-induced reduction in demand for
precautionary savings, though we found that the significance of this effect is also driven
in part by outlier observations with very large growth in livestock holdings in the
matched comparison group. For the FFD program, we find a significant average impact
of the program on growth in food consumption, but, surprisingly, a negative impact on
change in famine risk. Results show differences in the distribution of impacts by predrought
household welfare. Participation in public works had a significant impact on
growth in food consumption and food security for households in the middle and upper tail
of the per capita expenditure distribution. The better-targeted FFD program had its
largest impacts among the poor. These differences in program outcomes are consistent
with evidence on program targeting that shows that the work requirements of the EGS
make the poor less likely to participate.
Overall, these results suggest that emergency food aid played an important role in
improving welfare, access to food, and food security for many households following the
drought in 2002. However, improved targeting, especially in EGS, and larger, sustained
transfers may be required to increase benefits, particularly to the poorest households.
The impacts of food aid identified here indicate some persistence or accumulated effects
of transfers on consumption growth over time. Although the time lag between receipt of
transfers and observed consumption is not more than one year in most cases, the
estimated impact on consumption growth relative to the size and timing of transfers
suggests possible savings or multiplier effects of emergency food aid.