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Abstract
Given heavy dependence on rainfed maize production, Zambia must routinely cope with
pronounced production and consumption volatility in their primary food staple. Typical
policy responses include increased food aid flows, government commercial imports and stock
releases, and tight controls on private sector trade. This paper examines recent experience in
Zambia, using a simple economic model to assess the likely impact of maize production
shocks on the domestic maize price and on staple food consumption under alternative policy
regimes.
In addition to an array of public policy instruments, the analysis evaluates the quantitative
impact of two key private sector responses in moderating food consumption volatility—
private cross-border maize trade and consumer substitution of an alternate food staple
(cassava) for maize. The analysis suggests that, given a favorable policy environment, private
imports and increased cassava consumption together could fill roughly two-thirds of the
maize consumption shortfall facing vulnerable households during drought years.