Modelling fertiliser use in the grain crop and oilseed sectors of South Africa

A Partial Equilibrium (PE) model is developed to model fertiliser use in the grain crop and oilseed sectors to assess the impact of changes in the physical and economic environment on production and fertiliser use. Since the adoption of a policy of trade liberalisation and the shift towards a free market for agricultural products, the actual cropping patterns of grain crops have moved closer to the expected optimum production pattern. It is shown that the total area cultivated will decrease by 2,4 percent. Results show that except for the area under sunflower (that remains unchanged) and yellow maize that increases, the area utilised by other crops will decrease. Fertiliser use is directly correlated with production patterns in the provinces. A comparison of the base-case scenario and optimum solution revealed that the movement from a base to an optimum solution results in a drop in total area cultivated, production and exports. Fertiliser use correspondingly decreases.

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Journal Article
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Agrekon, Volume 39, Issue 3
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 Record created 2017-04-01, last modified 2018-01-22

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