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Abstract
Grain prices have risen sharply since 2005 and 2006 affecting livestock markets by increasing
feed prices and leading to significant volatility shocks. The high price levels and magnitude of
sustained high volatilities has raised concerns for many sectors of the economy, in particular
those with direct relation to these markets. Policy makers are analyzing the interrelationships
among these markets, and the effects of energy market shocks on agricultural markets. This study
considers a threshold structure in a multivariate time-series model that evaluates these market
linkages, capturing asymmetric correlations between grain and livestock prices, including
volatility spillovers. We empirically study the impact of corn usage for ethanol production in the
evolution of the above mentioned prices. Results are compared to previous scenarios where
corn, soybean and livestock production and consumption did not face the corn demand for
ethanol production. We find positive dynamic correlations between corn and soybean and feeder
and fed cattle prices, consistent with the literature. And we find an inverse or negative relation
between corn and feeder/calf prices for the period post mandated ethanol production, as
anticipated by the literature for increased corn prices. Also, we find there are adjustment costs
inhibiting price transmission between the crops and the live cattle market, in the form of
modifying feeding rations. More relevantly, we identify plausible asymmetric effect on the
correlations between the markets, especially when considering the period for the ethanol driven
corn consumption versus previous periods of corn consumption. These asymmetric correlations
are the result of spillover effects.