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Abstract
Economic analysis of the process of technical change has often involved macro-level
studies of its causes and consequences. Relatively little attention has been given to the,
more fundamental knowledge generation process itself. This stems in large part from the real
difficulties of obtaining appropriate indicators of research output.
The view that there exists a systematic relationship between research expenditures and
knowledge increments has been taken up by numerous authors including Evenson (1968), Minasian
(1969), Pakes (1978), Gri1iches (1979), and Kamien and Schwartz (1982). It follows naturally
from the perception that, in general, science progresses by a sequence of marginal
improvements rather than a series of discrete and essentially sporadic breakthroughs
(see Burke [1978).
Recent studies by Pakes and Gri1iches (1980), Hausman et a1. (1981), and Hall et a1.
(1984) have sought direct estimates of the research input-output relationship for research
performed by private firms in the non-agricultural sector. To date there appears to be no
similar analysis of the public sector agricultural research process. The study reported here
represents a first step in this direction. It develops some quantifiable indicators of
agricultural knowledge production by the U.S. public sector research system and will also
attempt to provide some clues as to the nature of the agricultural research spending-research
output relationship.