Modeling Pork Supply Response and Price Volatility: The Case of Greece

This paper examines the supply response of the Greek pork market. A GARCH process is used to estimate expected price and price volatility, while price and supply equations are estimated jointly. In addition to the standard GARCH model, several different symmetric, asymmetric, and nonlinear GARCH models are estimated. The empirical results indicate that among the estimated GARCH models, the quadratic NAGARCH model seems to better describe producers’ price volatility, which was found to be an important risk factor of the supply response function of the Greek pork market. Furthermore, the empirical findings show that feed price is an important cost factor of the supply response function and that high uncertainty restricts the expansion of the Greek pork sector. Finally, the model provides forecasts for quantity supplied, producers’ price, and price volatility.


Issue Date:
2009-04
Publication Type:
Journal Article
PURL Identifier:
http://purl.umn.edu/48764
Published in:
Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Volume 41, Number 1
Page range:
145-162
Total Pages:
18
JEL Codes:
C510; D200; Q110




 Record created 2017-04-01, last modified 2017-04-28

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