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Abstract
This paper suggests practical methods for assessing policy research programs,
both ex post and ex ante. Measuring the benefits of policy research is difficult: the path
of causation between research and policy change is nearly always uncertain; multiple
factors influence any particular policy change; policies are diverse in nature as are their
intended and actual effects; and some effects of policy research are not priced in the
market. Many of the benefits of changes in policy stem from the reduced cost of welfare-improving
institutional change. Economic surplus analysis can be used to assess such
changes. In some cases, Bayesian decision theory may be helpful in evaluating policy
research, although it is usually difficult to obtain estimates of the probability distributions
a decision-maker has before the research becomes available. Subjective estimates of
parameters and some measure of their degree of uncertainty, are likely to be needed for an
economic surplus model. The paper suggests a set of steps for policy research evaluation.
It is applied to two cases: an evaluation of pesticide policy research in Brazil, and an
evaluation of policies affecting deforestation in Indonesia.