To What Surprises Do Hog Futures Markets Respond?

We reassess the effect of new information in the Hogs and Pigs Reports (HPR) focusing on announcements’ rationality and alternative surprises. HPR announcements are irrational estimates of final estimates, and market expectations are irrational estimates of HPR numbers. Using the market’s best forecast and incorporating final estimates, we modify conventional information measures. Despite differences as large as 33 cents/cwt in price response, findings suggest there is little to differentiate among surprise measures. Regardless, the message that HPR provides new information to the market is strongly supported. On balance, marketing (breeding) information has a larger effect on short-term (long-term) price changes.


Issue Date:
2008-04
Publication Type:
Journal Article
PURL Identifier:
http://purl.umn.edu/45046
Published in:
Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Volume 40, Number 1
Page range:
73-87
Total Pages:
15
JEL Codes:
C24; Q13




 Record created 2017-04-01, last modified 2017-08-25

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