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Abstract
The effects of the 2003 CAP reform on the farmers’ decisions on whether to abandon
their farming activity, how much to produce and what to produce are analyzed in the present
paper. To this effect data collected for Hungarian, Dutch and Greek farmers on their
perceptions about the reform and its effects, and on their production intentions is analyzed
using discrete choice models under 3 alternative scenarios for the future produce prices. The
discrete choice model applied in the present paper is sequential since farmers are confronted
with a sequence of choices. In the first stage, the choice is between abandoning farming or
continuing, then those farmers who have chosen to continue are presented with two additional
choices related to their level of production and crop mix. Some of the results of the analysis
point out that the evolution of future prices, level of information about Cap reform, farm size
play an important role in the decision to abandon or continue. In the case of Hungary and
Greece, younger farmers are less likely to abandon, more likely to increase production and
change crop mix than their older counterparts, emphasizing the importance of aids to the
young.