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Abstract
The paper provides a quantitative assessment of the impact on the banana market of the expansion
of trade preferences the EU granted ACP countries with the recent Economic Partnership
Agreements (EPA) and of the possible erosion of these preferences as a result of different possible
endings, if any, of on-going WTO negotiations. The results of the simulations performed suggest
that the impact of the EPA on the production and consumption of bananas in the EU will be limited,
while benefits for ACP countries will be significant (at the expense of MFN exporters). However, a
final agreement in the WTO DDA round may bring an erosion of the preferential margins currently
enjoyed by ACP countries of such an order of magnitude as to cancel out most of these benefits.
The actual outcome will depend on the EU bound tariff for bananas which will be subject to the
reduction commitments (will this be the one indicated in the Uruguay Round EU “schedules”, or the
tariff introduced with the reform of the EU import regime for bananas in 2006?); on whether
bananas will be included among “tropical products”; and, if this is the case, on the provisions for
“tropical products” contained in the final agreement. Possible outcomes of current bilateral
negotiations between the EU and MFN exporters are analyzed as well.