Vector Autoregressions, Policy Analysis, and Directed Acyclic Graphs: An Application to the U.S. Economy

The paper considers the use of directed acyclic graphs (DAGs), and their construction from observational data with PC-algorithm TETRAD II, in providing over-identifying restrictions on the innovations from a vector autoregression. Results from Sims’ 1986 model of the US economy are replicated and compared using these data-driven techniques. The directed graph results show Sims’ six-variable VAR is not rich enough to provide an unambiguous ordering at usual levels of statistical significance. A significance level in the neighborhood of 30 % is required to find a clear structural ordering. Although the DAG results are in agreement with Sims’ theory-based model for unemployment, differences are noted for the other five variables: income, money supply, price level, interest rates, and investment. Overall the DAG results are broadly consistent with a monetarist view with adaptive expectations and no hyperinflation.


Issue Date:
2003-05
Publication Type:
Journal Article
DOI and Other Identifiers:
Print ISSN 1514-0326 (Other)
Online ISSN 1667-6726 (Other)
PURL Identifier:
http://purl.umn.edu/44001
Published in:
Journal of Applied Economics, Volume 06, Number 2
Page range:
1-24
Total Pages:
24
JEL Codes:
C1; E1




 Record created 2017-04-01, last modified 2017-08-25

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