Economic Outlook for Representative Cotton Farms Given the August 2007 FAPRI/AFPC Baseline

Projected crop prices for FAPRI’s August 2007 Baseline are summarized in Table 1. In general, crop price projections tend to be higher than they were in recent baselines. Soybean and rice price projections increased most substantially. Individual crop prices are projected to move as follows: • Corn prices start at $3.10/bu in 2007, reach a high of $3.38/bu in 2008, and decline to $3.25/bu by 2012. • Wheat prices spike to $5.11/bu in 2007, and return to a range of $4.19/bu to $4.32/bu for the remainder of the planning horizon. • Cotton prices are now expected to peak at $0.6116/lb in 2009, and then stay above $0.5900/lb through 2012. • Rice prices are expected to remain above $9.00/cwt throughout the planning horizon, peaking at $9.90/cwt in 2007. • Sorghum prices are expected to remain relatively stable, ranging between $2.92/bu and $3.19/bu between 2007 and 2012. • Soybeans are expected to range between $7.72/bu and $8.01/bu during the planning horizon. • The U.S. all hay prices are expected to peak at $123.20/ton in 2007, and stay above $110.00/ton through 2012. Assumed loan rates and direct payment rates are reported in Table 1, and reflect the rates authorized in the 2002 Farm Bill. All payment rates are assumed to remain constant at 2006 levels for 2007 through 2012. Projected annual rates of change for variable cash expenses are summarized in Table 2. The rate of change in input prices comes from FAPRI’s August 2007 Baseline. Based on projections from Global Insight, annual interest rates paid for intermediate-term and long-term loans, and interest rates earned on savings are also reported in Table 2. Assumed annual rates of change in land values over the 2007-2012 period are provided by the FAPRI Baseline and are projected to range between 3.51% and 13.68% per year.


Issue Date:
2007-09
Publication Type:
Working or Discussion Paper
PURL Identifier:
http://purl.umn.edu/37980
Total Pages:
28
Series Statement:
Briefing Paper
07-11




 Record created 2017-04-01, last modified 2017-08-25

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