The food security dimension of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA)

The African Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) that came into effect in January 2021, holds a promise of boosting the economies of African countries. In addition, the agreement could help to alleviate the food security in various parts of the continent. In our study we assess a likely scenario for food security outcomes in the continent. To the best of our knowledge, no prior quantitative assessment of the agreement’s food security outcomes exists. Our study fills this gap. We employ a global computable general equilibrium model MAGNET that includes a detailed representation of trade flows and agri-food production in African countries. With the model we simulate an explicit trajectory of reductions in tariffs and non-tariff measures (NTMs) between African countries. Our results indicate that the AfCFTA has largely positive effects on African economies that will boost both economic growth and intra-African trade. These outcomes help to improve food security principally by increasing the household incomes. Food production becomes more concentrated geographically as the countries’ are better able to exploit their comparative advantages. In addition, majority of the countries improve their food security by increasing their imports and are in some cases able to reduce their own production.