TRENDS IN THE ACCURACY OF USDA PRODUCTION FORECASTS FOR BEEF AND PORK

Trends in the accuracy of USDA forecasts of beef and pork production and supply are evaluated for the period 1982-96. Findings of the study show that USDA forecasts underestimated production and supply in the 1980s, but this bias has now disappeared. The variance of forecasts also has declined. Thus the accuracy of the forecasts has improved. The most recent USDA forecasts were found to meet the criteria of optimal forecasts, while those of the 1980s were not optimal.


Issue Date:
1998-12
Publication Type:
Journal Article
PURL Identifier:
http://purl.umn.edu/31194
Published in:
Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Volume 23, Number 2
Page range:
515-525
Total Pages:
11




 Record created 2017-04-01, last modified 2017-08-24

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