AN APPLICATION OF SAFETY-FIRST PROBABILITY LIMITS IN A DISCRETE STOCHASTIC FARM MANAGEMENT PROGRAMMING MODEL

A sequential decision-making model was developed, and data from farm-raised catfish production were used to demonstrate its use. Outcomes of sequences of decisions which satisfied chance constraints on ending cash balances were traced through a specified time period. Discrete choice variables were specified due to the fixed nature of pond facilities. Recourse actions specified were sale of production in excess of endogenously determined transfer levels or purchase of inputs to supplement needs of the next production stage. Production activities cannot be changed during the planning period. Only yield variability was considered due to its impact on relative competitiveness among growth stages. Deviations were calculated from endogenously determined target levels based on goal and probability limits.


Subject(s):
Issue Date:
1989-07
Publication Type:
Journal Article
Record Identifier:
http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/30168
PURL Identifier:
http://purl.umn.edu/30168
Published in:
Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics, 21, 1
Page range:
65-72
Total Pages:
8




 Record created 2017-04-01, last modified 2018-11-28

Fulltext:
Download fulltext
PDF

Rate this document:

Rate this document:
1
2
3
 
(Not yet reviewed)