A COMPARISON OF SUBJECTIVE AND HISTORICAL CROP YIELD PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS

Forecast distributions based on historical yields and subjective expectations for 1987 expected crop yields were compared for 90 Western Kentucky grain farms. Different subjective probability elicitation techniques were also compared. In many individual cases, results indicate large differences between subjective and empirical moments. Overall, farmer expectations for 1987 corn yields were below those predicted from their past yields, while soybean expectations were above the historical forecast. Geographical location plays a larger role than crop in comparisons of relative variability of yield. Neither elicitation technique nor manager characteristics have significant effects on the comparisons of the forecasts.


Issue Date:
1992-12
Publication Type:
Journal Article
PURL Identifier:
http://purl.umn.edu/29647
Published in:
Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics, Volume 24, Number 2
Page range:
23-32
Total Pages:
10




 Record created 2017-04-01, last modified 2017-08-24

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