A TIME-SERIES ANALYSIS OF THE U.S. DURUM WHEAT AND PASTA MARKETS

A quarterly, partial-equilibrium vector-autoregression model of the U.S. durum wheat and pasta markets was estimated and simulated under three trade-barrier changes that are of potential relevance for the current round of WTO agricultural negotiations: a rise in the U.S. market-clearing durum wheat quantity from increased imports; a policy- or tariff- reduction-induced decline in U.S. durum wheat price; and a tariff-induced rise in U.S. pasta product prices. In response to each shock, an array of quarterly dynamic response characteristics are examined: response reaction times, direction and pattern of quarterly responses, response durations, response multipliers, and strength of durum/pasta market interrelationships.


Issue Date:
2001-07
Publication Type:
Journal Article
PURL Identifier:
http://purl.umn.edu/27818
Published in:
Journal of Food Distribution Research, Volume 32, Number 2
Page range:
1-19
Total Pages:
19




 Record created 2017-04-01, last modified 2017-08-24

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