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Abstract
The purpose of this study was to conduct a comprehensive evaluation of the market timing value of outlook price forecasts. One-, two-, and three-quarter ahead hog and cattle price forecasts from the four outlook programs were examined. Results of Merton market timing tests indicate that the outlook programs generally produce valuable hog price forecasts. However, the strength of the market timing value tended to diminish as the forecast horizon increased. The performance of the outlook programs in forecasting cattle prices was not as impressive.