Why are survey forecasts superior to model forecasts?

We investigate two characteristics of survey forecasts that are shown to contribute to their superiority over purely model-based forecasts. These are that the consensus forecasts incorporate the e§ects of perceived changes in the long-run outlook, as well as embodying departures from the path toward the long-run expectation. Both characteristics on average tend to enhance forecast accuracy. At the level of the individual forecasts, there is scant evidence that the second characteristic enhances forecast accuracy, and the average accuracy of the individual forecasts can be improved by applying a mechanical correction.


Issue Date:
Sep 30 2010
Publication Type:
Working or Discussion Paper
Record Identifier:
http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/270770
Language:
English
Total Pages:
36
JEL Codes:
C53; E37
Series Statement:
WERP 954




 Record created 2018-04-05, last modified 2018-04-05

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