Probability Distributions or Point Predictions? Survey Forecasts of US Output Growth and Inflation

We consider whether survey respondentsíprobability distributions, reported as histograms, provide reliable and coherent point predictions, when viewed through the lens of a Bayesian learning model, and whether they are well calibrated more generally. We argue that a role remains for eliciting directly-reported point predictions in surveys of professional forecasters.


Issue Date:
Jan 20 2012
Publication Type:
Working or Discussion Paper
Record Identifier:
http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/270748
Language:
English
Total Pages:
37
JEL Codes:
C53
Series Statement:
WERP 976




 Record created 2018-04-05, last modified 2018-04-05

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