Subjective and Ex Post Forecast Uncertainty: US Inflation and Output Growth

Survey respondents who make point predictions and histogram forecasts of macrovariables reveal both how uncertain they believe the future to be, ex ante, as well as their ex post performance. Macroeconomic forecasters tend to be overconÖdent at horizons of a year or more, but over-estimate the uncertainty surrounding their predictions at short horizons.


Issue Date:
Sep 05 2012
Publication Type:
Working or Discussion Paper
Record Identifier:
http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/270629
Language:
English
Total Pages:
30
JEL Codes:
C53
Series Statement:
WERP 995




 Record created 2018-04-04, last modified 2018-04-04

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