Internal consistency of survey respondentsíforecasts: Evidence based on the Survey of Professional Forecasters

We ask whether the di§erent types of forecasts made by individual survey respondents are mutually consistent, using the SPF survey data. We compare the point forecasts and central tendencies of probability distributions matched by individual respondent, and compare the forecast probabilities of declines in output with the probabilities implied by the probability distributions. When the expected associations between these di§erent types of forecasts do not hold for some idividuals, we consider whether the discrepancies we observe are consistent with rational behaviour by agents with asymmetric loss functions.


Issue Date:
Oct 16 2006
Publication Type:
Working or Discussion Paper
Record Identifier:
http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/269742
Language:
English
Total Pages:
29
JEL Codes:
C53; E32; E37




 Record created 2018-03-21, last modified 2018-03-21

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