000267937 001__ 267937
000267937 005__ 20180207174446.0
000267937 037__ $$a2012-2018-684
000267937 041__ $$aeng
000267937 245__ $$aU.S. Deficient Sustainability: A New Approach Based on Multiple Endogenous Breaks
000267937 260__ $$c1998
000267937 269__ $$a1998-03-01
000267937 300__ $$a30
000267937 336__ $$aWorking or Discussion Paper
000267937 490__ $$aWorking Paper 1/98
000267937 520__ $$aRecent empirical work has questioned the consistency of U.S. fiscal policy with an intertemporal budget constraint. Empirical results have tended to indicate that the deficit process has undergone at least one structural shift during recent decades, with the deficit becoming either unsustainable or sustainable in only a weak sense in the postshift period. In this paper, we re-examine sustainability using a new approach, based on a cointegration model with multiple endogenous breaks. A Bayesian methodology is applied, incorporating Markov chain Monte Carlo simulators. In contrast to previous analyses, we find evidence of a sustainable deficit process over the 1947 to 1992 period, despite the occurrence of breaks during the 1970's and 1980's.
000267937 542__ $$fBy depositing this Content ('Content') in AgEcon Search, I agree that  I am solely responsible for any consequences of uploading this Content to AgEcon Search and making it publicly available, and I represent and warrant that: I am either the sole creator and the owner of the copyrights and all other rights in the Content; or, without obtaining another’s permission, I have the right to deposit the Content in an archive such as AgEcon Search. To the extent that any portions of the Content are not my own creation, they are used with the copyright holder’s express permission or as permitted by law. Additionally, the Content does not infringe the copyrights or other intellectual property rights of another, nor does the Content violate any laws or another’s rights of privacy or publicity. The Content contains no restricted, private, confidential, or otherwise protected data or information that should not be publicly shared. I understand that AgEcon Search will do its best to provide perpetual access to my Content. In order to support these efforts, I grant the Regents of the University of Minnesota ('University'), through AgEcon Search, the following non-exclusive, irrevocable, royalty-free, world-wide rights and licenses: to access, reproduce, distribute and publicly display the Content, in whole or in part, in order to secure, preserve and make it publicly available, and to make derivative works based upon the Content in order to migrate the Content to other media or formats, or to preserve its public access. These terms do not transfer ownership of the copyright(s) in the Content. These terms only grant to the University the limited license outlined above.
000267937 546__ $$aEnglish
000267937 650__ $$aInternational Development
000267937 650__ $$aResearch and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies
000267937 650__ $$aResearch Methods/ Statistical Methods
000267937 700__ $$aMartin, Gael M.
000267937 8560_ $$fgoett110@umn.edu
000267937 8564_ $$s3111302$$uhttp://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/267937/files/monash-244.pdf
000267937 8564_ $$s5403130$$uhttp://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/267937/files/monash-244.pdf?subformat=pdfa$$xpdfa
000267937 909CO $$ooai:ageconsearch.umn.edu:267937$$pGLOBAL_SET
000267937 980__ $$a2012