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Abstract

We estimate a multinomial Logit (MNL) model of U.K. Magistrates' Courts sentencing using a data set collected by the National Association for the Care and Resettlement of Offenders (NACRO) and test the independence of irrelevant alternatives (IIA) property using six tests. Conducting the tests with the appropriate asymptotic critical values we find that the acceptance or rejection of IIA depends both upon which test and which variant of a given test is used. The same tests are then performed using empirical critical values obtained by simulation and the resultant inferences compared. Our results show that empirical workers should exercise care when testing for IIA.

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