000267337 001__ 267337
000267337 005__ 20181128171432.0
000267337 022__ $$a0303-1853
000267337 037__ $$a346-2018-498
000267337 041__ $$aeng
000267337 245__ $$aDEVELOPMENT OF A REGIONAL PROGRAMMING MODEL FOR SIMULATING THE SOUTH AFRICAN WHEAT INDUSTRY, WITH SPECIAL CONSIDERATION TO RISK
000267337 260__ $$c1990-12
000267337 269__ $$a1990-12
000267337 336__ $$aJournal Article
000267337 520__ $$aWheat is the second most important field crop grown in South Africa in terms of gross value. Most of the wheat produced is consu!11ed in the form of bread which is one of the main staple foods in South Africa. Wheat is currently marketed under a one channel fixed pnce system. However in recent years there has been a trend to a more free market approach to the marketing of agricultural produce. Therefore the consequences of alternative marketing policies for wheat warrant investigation. For this purpose a regional mathematical programming model was developed with the objective of simulating the wheat industry. The model includes negative-sloping demand functions for various crops, substitut ion in demand between wheat and maize and risk in terms of variance-covariance matrices. It was found that average yield data could be misrepresentative when used in risk analysis. Therefore, .where possible, a poole~ data _se~ was used. The results show that the model successfully simulates production in the main wheat growmg regions of South Africa. This ts shown by the estimated shadow price of land being similar to actual rents and by percentage absolute deviations of 12,2 per cent an_d 6,3 per cent between actual and predicted land use and production respectively. It is concluded that the model would be useful for policy research.
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000267337 546__ $$aEnglish
000267337 650__ $$aCrop Production/Industries
000267337 650__ $$aResearch and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies
000267337 650__ $$aRisk and Uncertainty
000267337 700__ $$aHowcroft, J.
000267337 700__ $$aOrtmann, G. F.
000267337 773__ $$j 29$$k 4$$o399$$q394$$tAgrekon
000267337 8560_ $$fweidm015@umn.edu
000267337 8564_ $$s8304478$$uhttp://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/267337/files/27-Howcroft.pdf
000267337 8564_ $$s7472655$$uhttp://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/267337/files/27-Howcroft.pdf?subformat=pdfa$$xpdfa
000267337 909CO $$ooai:ageconsearch.umn.edu:267337$$pGLOBAL_SET
000267337 980__ $$a346