LONG RUN DETERMINANTS OF CEREAL PRODUCTION IN ETHIOPIA: DOES CO2 EMISSION MATTER?

The study employed vector error correction model to examine the long run relationship between climate change and cereal production using time series data (1962-2014) in Ethiopia. The cointegrating equation shows that the parameters included in the model are jointly significant at 1% significant level. The study revealed that a 10% percent increase in CO2 emission would have 2.75 % cereal production loss in the country. However, land and fertilizer were found to have positive and significant long-term impact on cereal production in the country. The forecasted cereal production - using contingent equation – shows that cereal production is expected to grow annually by 2.8%, on average, for the next 10 years. As a concluding remark, efforts towards reducing CO2 should be strengthened to further enhance the cereal production growth in the country. Moreover, providing fertilizer for the farmers with a reasonable price on due time is decisive to benefit from intensive agriculture.


Issue Date:
Apr 15 2017
Publication Type:
Journal Article
Record Identifier:
http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/266475
ISSN:
2147-8988
Language:
English
Published in:
International Journal of Food and Agricultural Economics (IJFAEC), Volume 05, Number 2
Page range:
109-119
JEL Codes:
Q18




 Record created 2018-01-12, last modified 2018-03-29

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