Evaluating the Economic Impact of Brexit: ‘Fearmongering’ or Just a Matter of Degree?

The UK’s decision to leave the European Union (Brexit) is a potential watershed for the UK economy. Economists are almost unanimous that this will lead to welfare losses, the extent being contingent on the specific form of UK trade relations post-Brexit. The purpose of this paper is two-fold: first, to review the insights from recent research quantifying the impact of Brexit and, drawing on this, what these models imply about the likely challenges in determining the UK’s trade relations in a post-Brexit context. Second, to consider the specific issues that will apply to the UK food and agricultural sectors. These issues will be complex: the UK relies considerably on the EU for food imports and as a destination for exports; tariffs are higher in this sector compared with other sectors; and the use of non-tariff barriers is particularly prevalent. As a consequence, Brexit will have a potentially significant impact on the food and agricultural sectors with the consequence of reduced trade and higher food prices.


Issue Date:
Dec 05 2017
Publication Type:
Conference Paper/ Presentation
Record Identifier:
http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/265729
Language:
English
Total Pages:
22




 Record created 2017-12-11, last modified 2018-01-23

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