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Abstract

The Box-Jenkins methodology is very useful for building reliable models in order to forecast the development of economic indicators. Their advantage is that they are applicable especially when the data highly fluctuate or there are seasonal fluctuations. The conventional methods such analytical equalisation of the time series or regression and correlation analyses do not give us reliable results. The reason is that these models are not able to present the fluctuations of the data, which are influenced by present turbulent market environment.

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