Nexus between Climate Change and Food security in the East Africa Region: An Application of Autoregressive Modelling Approach

This study is an attempt to unpack the existing link between climate change variability and food security in the East Africa Community (EAC) region. Specifically, the paper elaborates the main issues in climate change discourse and its implication to the food security equation in the EAC region. A plethora of empirical literature exists in the area of climate change not only at the regional level but also globally. Using secondary time series panel data, the study links cereal production patterns with rainfall and temperature dynamics for from 1961 to 2012. The data was obtained from the Food and Agricultural organization (FAOSTAT) as well as the World Bank knowledge management center. Econometric data analysis was attained using Eviews version 7 and GMDH version 3.8.3 statistical software. The findings of the Autoregressive model indicates that rainfall and temperature are inevitably changing. These findings offer important policy insights on the role played by climate change variability on food security in the EAC region.

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Invited Paper Presented at the Fifth African Higher Education Week and Ruforum Biennial Conference, 17 – 21 October, 2016, Cape Town, South Africa.

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