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Abstract
The study used calibrated Crop Environment Resource Synthesis (CERES) maize (corn) model
to simulate maize (corn) physiological growth processes and yields under 2045 and 2075
projected climate change scenarios for six representative counties in Alabama. The future
climatologies for two emission scenarios Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5
(medium) and RCP 8.5 (high) were developed based on the IPSL-CM5A-MR high resolution
climate model. Average yield decreases of 19.5% and 37.3% were, respectively, projected under
RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 for 2045, and average yield decreases of 32.5% and 77.8% were,
respectively, projected under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 for 2075. These yield decreases were largely
influenced by increasing temperatures as evidenced by the shortening of various development
stages such as anthesis and maturity, which are important determinants of the final grain yield
and number. Corn production in Autauga County was projected to be highly vulnerable to
climate change, while production in Limestone County was least vulnerable. Corn crops in
Alabama appear to be sensitive to climate change and will require adaptation strategies.