The Rationality of EIA Forecasts under Symmetric and Asymmetric Loss

The United States Energy Information Administration publishes annual forecasts of nationally aggregated energy consumption, production, prices, intensity and GDP. These government issued forecasts often serve as reference cases in the calibration of simulation and econometric models, which climate and energy policy are based on. This study tests for rationality of published EIA forecasts under symmetric and asymmetric loss. We find strong empirical evidence of asymmetric loss for oil, coal and gas prices as well as natural gas consumption, GDP and energy intensity.


Issue Date:
2005
Publication Type:
Working or Discussion Paper
PURL Identifier:
http://purl.umn.edu/25017
Total Pages:
29
JEL Codes:
Q43; C53
Series Statement:
CUDARE Working Paper 1009




 Record created 2017-04-01, last modified 2017-12-08

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