Anticipatory Signals of Changes in Corn Demand

Contemporaneous observations on expected supply and on prices of post-harvest futures contracts for corn are used to estimate expected demand relationships. These equations are used to forecast the prices of the post-harvest contracts based on new supply estimates. Each forecast can be compared with a corresponding futures price, i.e., the market’s forecast. The differences help discern the market’s expectations about the expected demand for the new crop relative to historical experience, which can help support outlook analyses. The discussion also deepens understanding of the term “anticipatory prices,” as used by H. Working (1958).


Issue Date:
2016-06
Publication Type:
Working or Discussion Paper
Record Identifier:
http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/250032
PURL Identifier:
http://purl.umn.edu/250032
Total Pages:
39
JEL Codes:
Q02; Q11
Series Statement:
WP
16-10




 Record created 2017-04-01, last modified 2018-01-23

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