THE EXPECTED CONSUMPTION OF PROTEIN FEED IN SOUTH AFRICA BY 2020

The consumption of animal products in South Africa is projected to 2020 and used to derive protein feed usage. A spreadsheet model, developed for this purpose, has the following novel features:- it is interactive and readily allows for scenario analysis; the price of protein is endogenous in the South African model as it is generated by an international model; income elasticities of demand are permitted to decline with GNP growth; it incorporates estimated rates of technological progress in livestock production, and predicts the resulting real price change. Total protein consumption is projected at 1.54 million tons by 2010, a 24% increase from 2000, and 1.96 million tons by 2020, a 58% increase from 2000, under base population growth and low income growth. Broiler, egg and pork product prices (projected to decline in real terms because of expected technological advances) contribute to increasing protein usage even in the absence of significant real income growth rates. Population growth remains the most important demand driver and scenario analysis reveals that alternative population growth rates impact significantly on projections. The negative effect of HIV/AIDS on population growth and the subsequent restriction on potential protein use is evident.


Issue Date:
2002
Publication Type:
Journal Article
PURL Identifier:
http://purl.umn.edu/245981
Published in:
Agrekon, Volume 41, Issue 1
Page range:
1-24




 Record created 2017-04-01, last modified 2017-08-29

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